# How to Map Risky Assumptions for New Products Using PM Skills Marketplace > Discover how to map risky assumptions for new products with PM Skills Marketplace. AI driven workflow identifies evaluates and prioritizes assumptions across eight risk categories. - Repository: [Pawel Huryn/pm-skills](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills) - Tags: how-to-guide - Published: 2026-07-09 --- **PM Skills Marketplace provides an AI-driven workflow that identifies, evaluates, and prioritizes risky assumptions across eight risk categories using the `identify-assumptions-new` and `prioritize-assumptions` skills.** The `phuryn/pm-skills` repository offers a systematic approach to map risky assumptions for new products through a markdown-based skill system. By leveraging the PM Skills Marketplace plugin, product managers can execute structured discovery workflows that surface hidden risks before committing engineering resources. The entire process runs within Claude-compatible environments using pure markdown instruction files that specify how AI models should analyze and categorize assumptions. ## The Two-Skill Framework for Risk Mapping The assumption mapping capability in PM Skills Marketplace centers on two discrete skills defined in the `pm-product-discovery/skills/` directory. These skills operate sequentially to first surface potential risks and then evaluate them against quantitative criteria. ### Identify Assumptions with `identify-assumptions-new` The `identify-assumptions-new` skill, defined in [`pm-product-discovery/skills/identify-assumptions-new/SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-product-discovery/skills/identify-assumptions-new/SKILL.md), generates a structured list of assumptions across eight risk categories. When invoked, the skill prompts the AI model to analyze a product concept from three distinct perspectives: **Product Manager**, **Designer**, and **Engineer**. The eight risk categories covered include: - **Value**: Will users actually want this? - **Usability**: Can users figure out how to use it? - **Viability**: Can we monetize and sustain this? - **Feasibility**: Can we build it with available technology? - **Ethics**: Are there harmful unintended consequences? - **Go-to-Market**: Can we reach and acquire users? - **Strategy & Objectives**: Does this align with company goals? - **Team**: Do we have the right talent and bandwidth? Each assumption output includes a confidence rating, enabling downstream calculations. ### Prioritize Assumptions with `prioritize-assumptions` The `prioritize-assumptions` skill, located at [`pm-product-discovery/skills/prioritize-assumptions/SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-product-discovery/skills/prioritize-assumptions/SKILL.md), transforms the raw assumption list into an actionable matrix. This skill implements specific formulas referenced in the Domain Context section of the skill definition: - **Impact** = Opportunity Score × Number of Customers - **Risk** = 1 – (Confidence × Effort) The skill places each assumption on an **Impact × Risk** matrix, categorizing items as high-impact/high-risk, high-impact/low-risk, low-impact/high-risk, or low-impact/low-risk. For every high-impact/high-risk item, the skill suggests a concrete experiment designed to validate or invalidate the assumption. ## Executing the Complete Discovery Workflow While individual skills handle specific tasks, the `/discover` command chains them into a comprehensive discovery process. The command definition in [`pm-product-discovery/commands/discover.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-product-discovery/commands/discover.md) specifies the following execution sequence: 1. `brainstorm-ideas-new` 2. `identify-assumptions-new` 3. `prioritize-assumptions` 4. `brainstorm-experiments-new` When you invoke `/discover`, the Claude runtime reads the command file, loads each referenced skill in order, and executes them as a single conversational flow. The command also auto-suggests next actions after each step, maintaining momentum through the discovery process. ## Architecture and Implementation Details The PM Skills Marketplace implements assumption mapping through a declarative architecture that requires no custom code execution. The system relies on three core components: **Skill Definition Files** (`*.md` under `pm-product-discovery/skills/`) follow a uniform schema containing YAML front-matter, description, and step-by-step instructions. The AI model reads these instructions and executes the logic through natural language processing rather than programmatic function calls. **Command Files** (`*.md` under `pm-product-discovery/commands/`) simply list ordered skill names. The Claude runtime interprets these lists as execution pipelines. **Plugin Manifest** ([`pm-product-discovery/.claude-plugin/plugin.json`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-product-discovery/.claude-plugin/plugin.json)) registers the plugin with the marketplace, exposing commands and skills to any Claude-compatible assistant. This manifest enables installation via the Claude Code marketplace, making the discovery toolkit available across different AI environments. Because the skills are pure markdown instructions, they are **language-agnostic** and can be reused by any AI assistant that understands the PM Skills format, including Claude, Gemini, and OpenCode. ## Practical Code Examples Below are three practical ways to invoke the assumption-mapping workflow from a Claude-compatible environment. ### Direct Skill Invocation To generate an initial assumption list for a new product concept: ```markdown What are the risky assumptions for a new AI-writing-assistant that helps non-native speakers improve their essays? ``` Claude loads `identify-assumptions-new` automatically and replies with a markdown table of assumptions, each tagged with a confidence rating and risk category. ### Prioritization Commands After generating assumptions, trigger the prioritization logic: ```markdown Prioritize the assumptions you just listed. ``` Claude runs `prioritize-assumptions`, computes Impact × Risk values, and returns a categorized matrix. The output includes a table similar to: | Assumption | Impact | Risk | Category | Suggested Experiment | |------------|--------|------|----------|----------------------| | Users will pay $10/mo for premium feedback | High | Low | High Impact / Low Risk | Launch MVP with pricing test | ### End-to-End Discovery To run the complete workflow in a single command: ```markdown /discover AI-writing-assistant for non-native English speakers ``` This executes the full chain: brainstorming ideas → identifying assumptions → prioritizing them → sketching experiments. The final output produces a concise discovery deck containing the product hypothesis, assumption matrix with experiments, and a next-step experiment plan. ## Summary - **PM Skills Marketplace** provides a markdown-based framework for mapping risky assumptions through the `phuryn/pm-skills` repository. - The **`identify-assumptions-new`** skill surfaces assumptions across eight risk categories from PM, Designer, and Engineer perspectives. - The **`prioritize-assumptions`** skill calculates Impact × Risk using the formulas Impact = Opportunity Score × # Customers and Risk = 1 – (Confidence × Effort). - The **`/discover`** command chains skills into an end-to-end workflow defined in [`pm-product-discovery/commands/discover.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-product-discovery/commands/discover.md). - All logic resides in markdown skill files under `pm-product-discovery/skills/`, making the system portable across AI assistants. ## Frequently Asked Questions ### What are the eight risk categories used in assumption mapping? The eight categories are Value, Usability, Viability, Feasibility, Ethics, Go-to-Market, Strategy & Objectives, and Team. These categories ensure comprehensive coverage of product risks spanning user desirability, technical implementation, business sustainability, and organizational alignment. ### How does the Impact × Risk matrix calculation work? The calculation uses two formulas defined in the `prioritize-assumptions` skill Domain Context. Impact equals the Opportunity Score multiplied by the Number of Customers. Risk equals 1 minus the product of Confidence and Effort. These values position each assumption on a matrix that guides experiment prioritization. ### Can I use PM Skills Marketplace without Claude? Yes. Because the skills are pure markdown instructions without custom code dependencies, any AI assistant that can read and execute structured markdown can run the workflow. The plugin manifest in [`pm-product-discovery/.claude-plugin/plugin.json`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-product-discovery/.claude-plugin/plugin.json) follows a standard format compatible with multiple AI marketplaces. ### What is the difference between direct skill calls and the `/discover` command? Direct skill calls invoke a single capability—such as `identify-assumptions-new`—in isolation. The `/discover` command chains multiple skills (`brainstorm-ideas-new` → `identify-assumptions-new` → `prioritize-assumptions` → `brainstorm-experiments-new`) into a guided conversational flow, automatically suggesting next steps and maintaining context between stages.