# How to Run a Pre-Mortem Risk Analysis Using Tigers, Paper Tigers, or Elephants > Learn to run a pre-mortem risk analysis using Tigers, Paper Tigers, or Elephants commands. Categorize risks and generate a markdown mitigation report easily. - Repository: [Pawel Huryn/pm-skills](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills) - Tags: how-to-guide - Published: 2026-06-26 --- **Run a pre-mortem risk analysis by invoking the `/pre-mortem` command with your PRD or launch plan, then categorize surfaced risks as Tigers (real threats), Paper Tigers (overblown concerns), or Elephants (unspoken issues) to generate a markdown mitigation report.** The **pm-skills** repository implements a structured pre-mortem workflow as a reusable skill that helps product teams identify risks before launch. This framework classifies potential failures into three distinct categories—**Tigers**, **Paper Tigers**, and **Elephants**—enabling teams to prioritize mitigation efforts and avoid preventable disasters. The implementation lives under `pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem` and is accessed through the command-line interface defined in [`pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md). ## Understanding the Tigers Framework The pre-mortem methodology in pm-skills uses a three-tier classification system to filter noise from genuine threats. Each category dictates a different response strategy and urgency level. ### What Are Tigers? **Tigers** represent real, concrete risks that could block your launch or require immediate post-launch attention. According to [`pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md) (lines 27-42), these are categorized further by urgency: - **Launch-Blocking**: Issues that must be resolved before release - **Fast-Follow**: Critical items that can ship immediately after launch - **Track**: Risks to monitor but not actively mitigate pre-launch Each Tiger receives a severity matrix and requires a specific owner and deadline. ### What Are Paper Tigers? **Paper Tigers** are over-blown concerns that consume mental bandwidth but are unlikely to materialize. The skill identifies these during the classification step (lines 27-42 in [`SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/SKILL.md)) and marks them for quick validation or dismissal rather than full mitigation planning. ### What Are Elephants? **Elephants** are unspoken or hidden worries that team members may be avoiding due to discomfort or politics. The framework explicitly surfaces these in a dedicated section of the output report to ensure psychological safety and comprehensive risk coverage. ## How the Pre-Mortem Skill Works The `pre-mortem` skill follows a deterministic seven-step execution flow defined in [`SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/SKILL.md) and invoked via [`pre-mortem.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pre-mortem.md). When you trigger the command, the system executes the following pipeline: 1. **Gather the PRD**: Parses your product requirements document to extract goals, assumptions, and timelines (lines 18-20 in [`SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/SKILL.md)) 2. **Imagine Failure**: Generates failure scenarios across technical, user, business, operational, and dependency dimensions (lines 27-33 in [`pre-mortem.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pre-mortem.md)) 3. **Categorize Risks**: Classifies each risk as Tiger, Paper Tiger, or Elephant (lines 27-42 in [`SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/SKILL.md)) 4. **Prioritize Tigers**: Labels blocking Tigers with severity levels (lines 44-53 in [`SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/SKILL.md)) 5. **Create Action Plans**: Generates mitigations with owners and deadlines for every launch-blocking item (lines 55-60 in [`SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/SKILL.md)) 6. **Format Output**: Renders a markdown report using the template defined in lines 52-88 of [`pre-mortem.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pre-mortem.md) 7. **Suggest Follow-ups**: Recommends updates to PRDs, test scenarios, or launch checklists (lines 92-97 in [`pre-mortem.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pre-mortem.md)) The final artifact is saved as `PreMortem-[product-name]-[date].md` (line 79 in [`SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/SKILL.md)) for version control and team distribution. ## Running the Analysis To execute a pre-mortem, ensure the **pm-execution** plugin is loaded in your pm-skills CLI environment. Then invoke the command using one of the following patterns: ```bash # Basic invocation with inline description / pre-mortem "We are launching a self-serve billing portal next month" # Invocation with an attached PRD file / pre-mortem --file path/to/PRD.md ``` The system processes your input through the skill pipeline and returns a structured markdown report. The command definition in [`pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md) specifies that you can supply either free-form text or structured documents like launch plans and feature specifications. ## Interpreting the Output The generated markdown report follows a strict template to ensure consistency across teams. According to [`pre-mortem.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pre-mortem.md) (lines 52-88), the output contains: ### Risk Categories - **Tigers (Real Risks)**: Presented in a table with columns for Risk, Likelihood, Impact, Mitigation, Owner, and Deadline - **Paper Tigers (Overblown Concerns)**: Listed as bullet points with brief explanations for why they are low-risk - **Elephants in the Room**: Unspoken issues requiring team discussion and alignment ### Go/No-Go Checklist The report concludes with a checklist derived from the Tiger classification: - [ ] All launch-blocking Tigers mitigated - [ ] Fast-follow plan documented - [ ] Track items assigned to monitoring owners This checklist serves as the final approval gate before launch. ## Summary - **Install pm-skills** and verify the `pm-execution` plugin contains the pre-mortem skill under [`pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md) - **Invoke the command** using `/pre-mortem` with your PRD or launch description to trigger the seven-step analysis pipeline - **Classify risks** into Tigers (real/urgent), Paper Tigers (overblown), and Elephants (hidden) based on the framework in the skill definition - **Address launch-blocking Tigers** by implementing the generated mitigation plans with assigned owners and deadlines - **Use the markdown report** (`PreMortem-[product-name]-[date].md`) as a version-controlled artifact for stakeholder alignment and go/no-go decisions ## Frequently Asked Questions ### What is the difference between a Tiger and a Paper Tiger in the pm-skills framework? A **Tiger** is a validated risk that could actually impact your launch, requiring specific mitigation owners and deadlines. A **Paper Tiger** is an over-blown concern that appears threatening but is unlikely to materialize; the framework flags these so teams don't waste resources on false alarms. The distinction is made during step 3 of the skill execution (lines 27-42 in [`SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/SKILL.md)). ### Can I run a pre-mortem without a formal PRD? Yes. While the skill is optimized for parsing structured documents (as noted in lines 18-20 of [`SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/SKILL.md)), you can invoke `/pre-mortem` with free-form text describing your feature or launch plan. The system will extract assumptions and timelines from your description to generate the failure scenarios. ### How does the framework handle "Elephants in the room" that teams are avoiding? The **Elephants** category specifically captures unspoken or politically sensitive risks that teams may be reluctant to voice. During the "Imagine Failure" step (lines 27-33 in [`pre-mortem.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pre-mortem.md)), the skill explicitly prompts for hidden worries across organizational and interpersonal dimensions, then lists them in a dedicated section of the output report to ensure they receive attention without blame. ### Where is the pre-mortem output saved and how should it be used? The skill generates a markdown file named `PreMortem-[product-name]-[date].md` (line 79 in [`SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/SKILL.md)). This file should be committed to your repository alongside your PRD and launch plans. Teams use it as a living document for risk tracking, assigning mitigation tasks, and conducting final go/no-go reviews via the included checklist.