# Assumption Testing Frameworks in PM Skills: 9 Methods for Product Prioritization

> Discover 9 assumption testing frameworks including Opportunity Score ICE RICE and Kano Model in PM Skills. Prioritize effectively with formulas and templates.

- Repository: [Pawel Huryn/pm-skills](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills)
- Tags: how-to-guide
- Published: 2026-06-17

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**PM Skills provides nine assumption testing frameworks—including Opportunity Score, ICE, RICE, and the Kano Model—centralized in the `prioritization-frameworks` skill with formulas, usage guidance, and downloadable templates.**

The `phuryn/pm-skills` repository offers a dedicated reference skill that consolidates quantitative methods for validating product assumptions before committing engineering resources. These frameworks are exposed through the `prioritization-frameworks` skill and consumed by downstream commands like `prioritize-assumptions` to create Impact × Risk matrices.

## The Nine Assumption Testing Frameworks

According to the source code in [`pm-execution/skills/prioritization-frameworks/SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/skills/prioritization-frameworks/SKILL.md), PM Skills implements the following quantitative and qualitative frameworks:

**Opportunity Score (Dan Olsen)**
Measures **Importance × (1 − Satisfaction)** to surface high-value customer problems. Product managers use this when prioritizing problems before any solutions are built.

**ICE Framework**
Calculates **Impact × Confidence × Ease**, where Impact equals Opportunity Score × number of customers, Confidence ranges 1-10, and Ease ranges 1-10. This method enables quick ranking of ideas when time is limited.

**RICE Framework**
Scales ICE for larger teams using **Reach × Impact × Confidence ÷ Effort**. Reach represents the number of customers, Impact uses the Opportunity Score, Confidence ranges 0-100%, and Effort uses person-months.

**Kano Model**
Classifies features into Must-be, Performance, Attractive, Indifferent, and Reverse categories. This framework excels at understanding customer expectations rather than pure assumption validation.

**MoSCoW Method**
Categorizes requirements as Must have, Should have, Could have, or Won't have. This provides simple stakeholder alignment for scope decisions.

**Eisenhower Matrix**
Maps tasks by Urgent versus Important quadrants. This serves as a personal task management tool for product managers.

**Impact vs Effort**
A 2×2 matrix for quick triage of many ideas during initial screening phases.

**Risk vs Reward**
Adds uncertainty dimensions to the Impact vs Effort matrix for decision-making where risk tolerance varies significantly.

**Weighted Decision Matrix**
Supports multi-criteria scoring with custom weights for complex trade-offs involving many dimensions.

## How the Prioritize-Assumptions Skill Works

The [`pm-product-discovery/skills/priorize-assumptions/SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-product-discovery/skills/priorize-assumptions/SKILL.md) file operationalizes these frameworks by applying ICE and RICE formulas to compute Impact scores. It then maps each assumption onto an **Impact × Risk matrix**, where Risk is calculated as **(1 − Confidence) × Effort**.

This matrix identifies high-impact/high-risk assumptions requiring immediate experimentation versus low-effort items that can be deferred. The skill references the framework definitions from [`pm-execution/skills/prioritization-frameworks/SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/skills/prioritization-frameworks/SKILL.md) for all calculations.

Practical usage:

```bash
pm-product-discovery:prioritize-assumptions \
    --assumptions assumptions.txt \
    --framework ICE

```

This command performs the following steps:

1. Reads assumptions from [`assumptions.txt`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/assumptions.txt)
2. Computes Impact using the ICE formula (Opportunity Score × number of customers)
3. Calculates Risk as (1 − Confidence) × Effort
4. Generates an Impact × Risk matrix with experiment recommendations for high-impact/high-risk items

## Accessing Framework Templates

The repository provides downloadable Google Sheets and Excel templates for quantitative frameworks. According to [`pm-execution/skills/prioritization-frameworks/SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/skills/prioritization-frameworks/SKILL.md), templates are available for Opportunity Score, ICE, and RICE frameworks.

To retrieve a template:

```bash
pm-execution:download-template \
    --template opportunity-score \
    --output ./opportunity_score_template.xlsx

```

This command fetches the Google Sheets template referenced in the frameworks skill, allowing teams to input survey data (Importance and Satisfaction) to calculate Opportunity Scores for each problem.

## Integration with Discovery Workflows

The assumption testing frameworks integrate into broader discovery workflows through [`pm-product-discovery/commands/discover.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-product-discovery/commands/discover.md). This orchestration file calls the `identify-assumptions-*` and `prioritize-assumptions` skills, applying the quantitative frameworks during the validation phase.

## Summary

- PM Skills consolidates **nine assumption testing frameworks** in [`pm-execution/skills/prioritization-frameworks/SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/skills/prioritization-frameworks/SKILL.md)
- **ICE and RICE** provide quantitative scoring formulas for Impact calculations
- The **prioritize-assumptions** skill applies these formulas to create an **Impact × Risk matrix** for experiment planning
- Ready-to-use **Google Sheets templates** are accessible via the `download-template` command
- Frameworks range from quick triage methods (Impact vs Effort) to complex multi-criteria analysis (Weighted Decision Matrix)

## Frequently Asked Questions

### What is the difference between ICE and RICE in PM Skills?

ICE uses a 1-10 scale for Confidence and Ease, making it suitable for rapid estimation. RICE replaces Ease with Effort measured in person-months and uses percentage-based Confidence (0-100%), providing granularity for larger teams. Both formulas are defined in [`pm-execution/skills/prioritization-frameworks/SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/skills/prioritization-frameworks/SKILL.md) and referenced by the `prioritize-assumptions` skill.

### How does the prioritize-assumptions skill calculate risk?

The skill calculates Risk using the formula **(1 − Confidence) × Effort**, where Confidence represents validation certainty and Effort indicates implementation cost. It plots this against the Impact score (calculated via ICE or RICE) to categorize assumptions into the Impact × Risk matrix.

### Where can I find the templates for these frameworks?

Framework templates are stored as Google Sheets and referenced in [`pm-execution/skills/prioritization-frameworks/SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/skills/prioritization-frameworks/SKILL.md). Access them via the `pm-execution:download-template` command, which supports downloading Opportunity Score, ICE, and RICE templates as Excel files for local use.

### Which framework should I use for early-stage problem validation?

Use the **Opportunity Score** framework when validating problems before solution development. This method measures **Importance × (1 − Satisfaction)** to identify high-value problems where customer importance is high but current satisfaction is low, indicating prime opportunities for new products.