# How to Use the Pre-Mortem Skill for Risk Analysis in Product Management

> Master the pre-mortem skill for product risk analysis. Categorize threats, create mitigation plans, and assign owners to ensure a successful product launch. Learn how today.

- Repository: [Pawel Huryn/pm-skills](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills)
- Tags: how-to-guide
- Published: 2026-06-17

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**The Pre-Mortem skill in the phuryn/pm-skills repository executes a structured "what-if-it-fails" framework that categorizes launch risks as Tigers, Paper Tigers, or Elephants, then generates prioritized mitigation plans with assigned owners and deadlines.**

The **Pre-Mortem** skill is part of the *pm-execution* suite in the open-source **pm-skills** repository. It provides product teams with a systematic approach to **pre-mortem skill for risk analysis**, converting speculative anxiety about upcoming launches into actionable risk management strategies before code ships.

## Understanding the Pre-Mortem Risk Taxonomy

The skill implements a three-class taxonomy defined in [`pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md) to distinguish between genuine threats and organizational noise.

### Tigers (Real Problems)

**Tigers** represent verified risks that could derail the launch. The framework subdivides these by urgency into **launch-blocking**, **fast-follow**, and **track** categories, ensuring critical issues receive immediate attention while lower-priority items are monitored.

### Paper Tigers (Overblown Worries)

**Paper Tigers** are perceived risks that analysis reveals to be less severe than initially feared. Identifying these prevents teams from wasting engineering resources on edge cases with minimal impact.

### Elephants (Unspoken Concerns)

**Elephants** capture the risks nobody wants to mention—the organizational taboos, political sensitivities, or cultural blind spots that typically surface only after failure occurs.

## How the Pre-Mortem Workflow Executes

When you invoke the `/pre-mortem` command, the engine loads the skill definition and executes a five-step workflow:

1. **Input acquisition** – Accepts product-plan artifacts such as PRDs, launch briefs, or feature specifications via markdown blocks or file uploads.
2. **Scenario simulation** – Imagines the launch having failed 14 days after release, prompting enumeration of technical, user, business, operational, and dependency risks.
3. **Risk categorisation** – Applies the Tiger/Paper Tiger/Elephant taxonomy, then splits Tigers by urgency level.
4. **Action-plan generation** – For each launch-blocking Tiger, produces a mitigation strategy, assigned owner, and deadline.
5. **Report rendering** – Outputs a markdown document following the template in [`pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md).

## Invoking the Pre-Mortem Command

You can trigger the analysis through the CLI or chat interface using several input methods.

### Inline Invocation

Pass a brief description directly to the command:

```markdown
/pre-mortem We're launching a self-serve billing portal next month

```

### File Upload

Submit a structured PRD or specification:

```markdown
/pre-mortem

```yaml
title: Billing Portal
summary: Self-serve UI for managing subscriptions
release_date: 2024-11-01
...

```

```

### Output Format

The skill generates a markdown table suitable for saving to files like [`PreMortem-Billing-Portal-2024-10-05.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/PreMortem-Billing-Portal-2024-10-05.md):

```markdown

## Pre-Mortem: Billing Portal

| # | Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation | Owner | Deadline |

|---|------|------------|--------|------------|-------|----------|
| 1 | Payment gateway latency > 2s | High | High | Optimize API calls, add timeout fallback | Backend lead | 2024-10-20 |

```

## Key Files and Architecture

The implementation follows a clean separation between conversational entry points and execution logic:

- **[`pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md)** – Defines the command interface and user-facing workflow.
- **[`pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md)** – Contains the detailed LLM instructions and risk taxonomy definitions.
- **[`pm-execution/README.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/README.md)** – Provides context for all execution-related skills.
- **[`README.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/README.md)** (repo root) – Offers installation instructions and repository overview.

Both command and skill files reside under the *pm-execution* category, keeping execution tools discoverable and organized according to the repository's structural conventions.

## Summary

- The **Pre-Mortem skill** in phuryn/pm-skills runs a "what-if-it-fails" analysis before product launches.
- It classifies risks as **Tigers** (real), **Paper Tigers** (overblown), or **Elephants** (unspoken).
- The workflow executes five steps from input acquisition to rendered markdown reports.
- **Launch-blocking Tigers** receive specific mitigation plans with owners and deadlines.
- Command definitions live in [`pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md), while skill logic resides in [`pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md).

## Frequently Asked Questions

### What is the Pre-Mortem skill and how does it work?

The Pre-Mortem skill is an execution tool in the pm-skills repository that simulates a failed product launch to identify risks proactively. It uses the LLM to project 14 days past release, then categorizes findings and generates mitigation plans according to the Tiger/Paper Tiger/Elephant taxonomy.

### How does the Tiger/Paper Tiger/Elephant classification system work?

**Tigers** are verified risks requiring action, subdivided by urgency into launch-blocking, fast-follow, and track categories. **Paper Tigers** are exaggerated concerns that analysis reveals as manageable. **Elephants** are organizational risks stakeholders avoid mentioning until failure occurs.

### Where are the pre-mortem skill files located in the repository?

The command definition is at [`pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md) and the skill implementation is at [`pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md). Both are part of the *pm-execution* category grouping execution-related tools.

### Can I use the pre-mortem skill for projects other than product launches?

Yes. While optimized for product launches, the skill accepts any product-plan artifact including PRDs, feature specs, or operational briefs, making it adaptable to major releases, infrastructure migrations, or strategic initiatives.