# Pre-Mortem Risk Analysis Skill: Complete Capabilities Guide for Product Teams

> Master pre-mortem risk analysis for product teams. Identify Tigers, Paper Tigers, and Elephants to prevent launch failures with actionable mitigation plans.

- Repository: [Pawel Huryn/pm-skills](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills)
- Tags: capabilities-guide
- Published: 2026-07-10

---

**The pre-mortem risk analysis skill is a built-in product management tool that anticipates launch failures by categorizing risks as Tigers, Paper Tigers, or Elephants, then generates actionable mitigation plans with assigned owners and deadlines.**

The pre-mortem risk analysis skill in the `phuryn/pm-skills` repository provides a structured framework for forward-thinking risk assessment on any product requirement document (PRD), launch plan, or feature specification. This capability enables product teams to surface hidden concerns and build concrete mitigation strategies before launch, dramatically reducing post-mortem surprises.

## Core Capabilities of the Pre-Mortem Risk Analysis Skill

### Multi-Dimensional Risk Identification

According to [`pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md) (lines 27-32), the skill generates a comprehensive list of possible failure points across **technical, user, business, operational, and dependency dimensions**. This systematic scanning ensures no critical risk domain is overlooked during the analysis phase.

### The Three-Bucket Categorization System

As defined in [`pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md) (lines 27-42), the skill splits every identified risk into three distinct categories:

- **Tigers**: Real, serious risks that threaten launch success
- **Paper Tigers**: Over-blown concerns that appear threatening but lack actual impact
- **Elephants**: Unspoken or hidden worries that team members hesitate to voice

### Urgency Classification and Mitigation Planning

For every Tiger identified, the skill applies urgency classification as specified in [`SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/SKILL.md) (lines 44-53):

- **Launch-Blocking**: Critical issues that must be resolved before release
- **Fast-Follow**: High-priority items requiring immediate post-launch attention
- **Track**: Risks to monitor without immediate action

For Launch-Blocking Tigers specifically, the skill proposes concrete mitigations, assigns owners, and sets deadlines (lines 55-60).

### Automated Report Generation

The skill returns a ready-to-publish markdown report defined in [`pre-mortem.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pre-mortem.md) (lines 52-88), containing structured sections for Tigers, Paper Tigers, Elephants, detailed mitigation tables, and a Go/No-Go checklist.

### Context-Aware Ingestion and Iterative Follow-Up

When provided with a PRD file, the skill reads and extracts product assumptions, potentially supplementing analysis with live web searches for market data ([`SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/SKILL.md), lines 18-19). Following the initial analysis, it suggests next steps such as updating the PRD or creating test scenarios, and schedules a revisit 2-3 weeks before launch (lines 81-86).

## Invoking the Pre-Mortem Risk Analysis Skill

The skill supports multiple invocation patterns through the command interface.

### Text-Based Invocation

For quick analysis without documentation:

```text
/pre-mortem We're launching a self-serve billing portal next month

```

This generates a structured markdown response including:

```markdown

## Pre-Mortem: Billing Portal

### Tigers (Real Risks)

1. Core payment API outage – **Launch-Blocking** – Owner: Backend Lead – Due: 2026-09-01
2. Compliance missing GDPR consent flow – **Launch-Blocking** – Owner: Legal – Due: 2026-08-25

### Paper Tigers

- Concern: "Customers won't like the UI" – mitigated by existing design system.

### Elephants in the Room

- Unspoken: Team reluctance to support a 24/7 on-call rotation.

```

### PRD File Analysis

To analyze an existing specification document:

```text
/pre-mortem path/to/awesome-product-PRD.md

```

The skill automatically ingests the file content and populates risk categories based on extracted assumptions.

### Chaining to Action Items

After generating the report, you can request follow-up actions:

```text
/pre-mortem path/to/PRD.md
Want me to **create test scenarios** for the riskiest areas?

```

The skill then drafts test-scenario outlines specifically targeting Launch-Blocking Tigers.

## Implementation Architecture

The pre-mortem risk analysis skill is implemented across two primary files in the `phuryn/pm-skills` repository:

- **[`pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md)**: Contains the core logic for risk categorization, urgency classification, and action-plan generation (lines 27-86).
- **[`pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md)**: Provides the user-facing command wrapper, invocation syntax, and output template formatting (lines 27-88).

These files work together to provide the complete risk-analysis capability, with the skill definition handling the analytical logic and the command file managing the interface and presentation layer.

## Summary

- The pre-mortem risk analysis skill provides structured **risk identification** across five dimensions: technical, user, business, operational, and dependency.
- It employs a unique **three-bucket categorization** system (Tigers, Paper Tigers, Elephants) to prioritize concerns and surface hidden issues.
- **Urgency classification** (Launch-Blocking, Fast-Follow, Track) ensures critical path risks receive immediate attention with assigned owners and deadlines.
- The skill generates **publication-ready markdown reports** complete with mitigation tables and Go/No-Go checklists.
- **Context-aware ingestion** allows automatic PRD parsing and supplementary market research.
- **Iterative follow-up** capabilities ensure risk mitigation stays on track through launch.

## Frequently Asked Questions

### What distinguishes Tigers from Paper Tigers in the risk analysis?

**Tigers** represent real, serious risks that genuinely threaten launch success and require mitigation, while **Paper Tigers** are over-blown concerns that appear threatening but lack actual material impact on the product launch. This distinction helps teams focus resources on genuine threats rather than perceived ones.

### How does the skill process existing PRD files?

When provided with a file path, the skill reads the PRD document, extracts key product assumptions, and uses these as inputs for the risk analysis framework. According to [`SKILL.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/SKILL.md) (lines 18-19), it may also supplement this analysis with live web searches for relevant market or competitor context.

### What deliverables does the pre-mortem analysis produce?

The skill generates a comprehensive markdown report including categorized risk lists (Tigers, Paper Tigers, Elephants), detailed mitigation tables with owners and deadlines, urgency classifications, and a Go/No-Go checklist. This format is defined in [`pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md) (lines 52-88).

### Can the skill integrate with project management workflows?

Yes, the skill supports iterative follow-up by suggesting specific next steps such as creating test scenarios, updating PRDs, or drafting launch checklists. It also schedules reminders to revisit the analysis 2-3 weeks before launch, ensuring risk mitigation remains current throughout the product lifecycle.