How to Conduct a Pre-Mortem Risk Analysis Using the `/pre-mortem` Command

The /pre-mortem command runs a structured imagination-based risk assessment on product requirements documents or launch plans, categorizing threats into Tigers, Paper Tigers, and Elephants before generating a prioritized mitigation report.

The phuryn/pm-skills repository provides a comprehensive project management toolkit that includes a built-in pre-mortem risk analysis workflow. This command helps product teams identify potential failure points before launch by analyzing PRDs, feature specs, or free-form descriptions through a systematic risk-identification framework defined in pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md and pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md.

What Is the /pre-mortem Command?

The /pre-mortem command is a slash command that triggers a specialized skill for proactive risk management. Unlike post-mortems that analyze failures after they occur, this command asks the model to imagine the launch has already failed and work backward to identify why. The command definition lives in pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md, while the execution logic resides in pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md.

How to Invoke the Command

You can trigger the pre-mortem analysis using two primary input methods.

Basic Text Input

Pass a free-form description of your product, feature, or launch directly after the command:

/pre-mortem We're launching a self-serve billing portal next month

Uploading a PRD File

Attach a product requirements document or specification file for deeper analysis:

/pre-mortem (attach file) product-requirements.md

The skill accepts any format, but richer inputs yield sharper risk identification according to the command documentation.

The Pre-Mortem Workflow

Once invoked, the command executes a six-step workflow orchestrated by the pre-mortem skill.

Accept the Plan

The skill ingests your input—whether a formal PRD, launch plan, or verbal description. The system may supplement this with web searches for additional context, treating the request as a structured risk-identification exercise as defined in the skill header (name: pre-mortem).

Risk Identification

The model imagines the launch has catastrophically failed, then enumerates risks across five categories:

• Technical - Engineering constraints, scalability issues, technical debt
• User - Adoption barriers, UX confusion, accessibility gaps
• Business - Market fit, revenue impact, competitive threats
• Operational - Support burden, training needs, process gaps
• Dependency - Third-party integrations, vendor reliability, cross-team blockers

Classify Risks

Each identified risk receives a classification label defined in pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md (lines 27-43):

• Tiger - A real, credible threat that could derail the launch
• Paper Tiger - An overblown concern that appears dangerous but lacks actual impact
• Elephant - A hidden or unspoken worry that nobody wants to address but everyone senses

Prioritize Tigers

Tigers undergo secondary triage into urgency-based tiers (lines 44-53 of the skill file):

• Launch-Blocking - Must resolve before release; critical path items
• Fast-Follow - High priority but can be addressed immediately post-launch
• Track - Monitor without immediate action; maintain on risk register

Generate the Report

The skill composes a markdown report using the template from pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md (lines 54-88). The output includes categorized risk tables, a Go/No-Go checklist, and mitigation tracking columns.

Save Output

The system suggests saving the final analysis as PreMortem-<product-name>-<date>.md for version control and team distribution.

Understanding the Risk Classification System

The three-tier classification system provides immediate visual prioritization:

Tigers represent genuine threats requiring active mitigation. These receive detailed analysis including likelihood ratings, impact assessments, assigned owners, and deadlines.

Paper Tigers capture concerns that consume mental energy without posing real danger. Documenting these prevents wasted resources on low-probability edge cases.

Elephants surface the "unknown knowns"—organizational anxieties or political landmines that typically remain unspoken during standard planning sessions.

Output Structure and Report Format

The generated markdown report follows a standardized structure defined in the command template:

## Pre-Mortem: Mobile Onboarding Flow

**Date**: 2026-06-16  
**Status**: Draft

### Risk Summary

- **Tigers**: 5 (launch-blocking: 2, fast-follow: 2, track: 1)
- **Paper Tigers**: 3
- **Elephants**: 2

### Launch-Blocking Tigers

| # | Risk                     | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation                | Owner   | Deadline |

|---|--------------------------|------------|--------|---------------------------|---------|----------|
| 1 | Crash on iOS 14          | High       | High   | Add backward-compat shim | EngLead | 2026-06-20 |

The report continues with sections for Fast-Follow Tigers, Track Tigers, Paper Tigers, Elephants, and a Go/No-Go Checklist for launch readiness.

Next Steps and Follow-Up Actions

After generating the report, the system can propose concrete follow-up actions (lines 92-96 of the command file):

• Update the PRD with risk mitigations and contingency plans
• Create test scenarios targeting the riskiest technical areas
• Draft a launch checklist incorporating Tiger mitigation verification
• Schedule stakeholder reviews for Launch-Blocking items

These prompts transform the analysis from documentation into actionable project management artifacts.

Summary

• The /pre-mortem command in phuryn/pm-skills triggers a structured risk analysis by imagining launch failure and working backward
• Input can be free-form text or uploaded PRD files processed by pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md
• Risks classify into Tigers (real threats), Paper Tigers (false alarms), and Elephants (unspoken issues)
• Tigers prioritize into Launch-Blocking, Fast-Follow, and Track tiers
• Output generates as a markdown report with standardized tables, risk summaries, and Go/No-Go checklists saved as PreMortem-<product>-<date>.md

Frequently Asked Questions

What input formats does the /pre-mortem command accept?

The command accepts any format including formal PRDs, launch plans, feature specifications, or simple text descriptions. According to pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md, the skill reads the input as "Gather the PRD" and can supplement sparse descriptions with web searches for context.

What is the difference between a Tiger, Paper Tiger, and Elephant risk?

Tigers are credible threats requiring mitigation, Paper Tigers are overblown concerns that appear dangerous but lack actual impact, and Elephants represent hidden organizational worries that remain unspoken during normal planning. These classifications appear in lines 27-43 of the skill implementation file.

How does the command prioritize which risks to address first?

The system splits Tigers into three urgency tiers: Launch-Blocking (resolve before release), Fast-Follow (address immediately post-launch), and Track (monitor without immediate action). This prioritization logic is defined in the "Classify Tigers by Urgency" section of pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md (lines 44-53).

Can I customize the pre-mortem report template?

The report structure follows the template defined in pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md (lines 54-88), which includes standardized tables for risk categories and Go/No-Go checklists. While the core structure is fixed, the content—including risk categories, mitigation strategies, and follow-up prompts—adapts dynamically based on your specific product input.

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "instagit": {
      "command": "npx",
      "args": ["-y", "instagit@latest"]
    }
  }
}