Pre-Mortem Skill: How to Classify Project Risks as Tigers, Paper Tigers, and Elephants

The pre-mortem skill is a risk-analysis framework that requires product teams to assume a launch has already failed, then categorizes threats into Tigers (real risks), Paper Tigers (overblown concerns), and Elephants (unspoken issues) to prioritize mitigation efforts.

The pre-mortem skill is a built-in capability of the open-source pm-skills toolkit designed for product managers who want to surface hidden risks before shipping. Unlike traditional post-mortems that analyze failures after they happen, this approach imagines the launch has already crashed, working backwards to identify every potential failure point. The framework is codified in pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md and invoked via the command interface defined in pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md.

What Is the Pre-Mortem Skill?

The pre-mortem skill operates as a structured mental simulation. According to the skill definition file, the workflow follows three distinct steps:

1. Ingest a PRD, launch plan, or feature spec — the command accepts any textual description of the product or initiative.
2. Imagine the launch fails and generate a comprehensive list of possible failure points.
3. Classify each risk using the three-tier taxonomy to determine appropriate response levels.

This process forces teams to confront uncomfortable possibilities before committing resources, transforming vague anxiety into actionable intelligence.

The Three-Tier Risk Classification Framework

The core innovation of the pre-mortem skill lies in its classification system. As defined in pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md, risks are sorted into three distinct categories based on their nature rather than just their severity.

Tigers: Real, Substantive Risks

Tigers represent genuine threats that could derail the project. These are evidence-based concerns grounded in past experience, clear logic, or observable data that must be addressed. Typical examples include core feature breakage, regulatory blockers, or critical dependencies on key customers.

After identification, Tigers are further segmented by urgency:

• Launch-Blocking — Must be resolved before the release date.
• Fast-Follow — Requires resolution within approximately 30 days post-launch.
• Track — Monitored but not actively mitigated unless the risk materializes.

Paper Tigers: Overblown Concerns

Paper Tigers are risks that appear threatening but lack substantive impact or probability. These include minor UI quirks that won't affect user adoption or speculative performance worries with low probability of occurrence. While documented to align stakeholders, Paper Tigers do not require heavy investment or engineering resources.

Elephants: Unspoken Worries

Elephants capture the hidden risks teams avoid discussing—often political, organizational, or simply unknown. Examples include unvalidated assumptions about third-party APIs, hidden inter-team dependencies, or cultural resistance to the feature. These concerns deserve explicit investigation before launch, as they frequently materialize into Tigers if ignored.

Running the Pre-Mortem Analysis

To execute a pre-mortem, invoke the command with your product description:

/pre-mortem We're launching a self-serve billing portal next month

The skill processes the input and generates a structured markdown report following the template defined in pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md. The output includes sections for each risk type, mitigation actions, owners, and deadlines:

## Pre-Mortem: Billing Portal

### Tigers (Real Risks)

1. **Core payment API integration** – launch-blocking  
   *Mitigation*: Add end-to-end test suite; Owner: Backend lead; Due: 2026-07-10

### Paper Tigers (Overblown Concerns)

1. UI colour contrast – low impact; mitigated by existing style guide.

### Elephants in the Room

1. Unclear SLA with third-party payment provider – schedule a cross-team sync.

Integrating Pre-Mortem Results Into Workflows

Because the pre-mortem skill outputs plain markdown, it composes with other pm-skills commands. You can pipe the risk report into documentation updates or checklist generation:

/pre-mortem … | /update-prd --add-section "Risk Mitigations"

Alternatively, generate a launch checklist directly from the identified risks:

/pre-mortem … | /draft-launch-checklist

This command composition model allows the pre-mortem analysis to feed directly into execution planning without manual transcription.

Summary

• The pre-mortem skill is defined in pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md and invoked via pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md.
• It forces teams to assume failure has occurred, then work backwards to identify risks.
• Risks classify into Tigers (real, actionable), Paper Tigers (overblown, low priority), and Elephants (unspoken, requiring investigation).
• Tigers receive urgency labels: Launch-Blocking, Fast-Follow, or Track.
• Output is structured markdown compatible with other pm-skills commands for seamless workflow integration.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference between a pre-mortem and a post-mortem?

A post-mortem analyzes failures after they occur, while the pre-mortem skill assumes the launch has already failed and works backwards to identify potential risks before shipping. This proactive approach allows teams to mitigate issues while there is still time to address them.

How do I distinguish between a Tiger and a Paper Tiger?

Tigers are based on evidence, past experience, or clear logic that indicates genuine project danger. Paper Tigers lack substantive backing—these are hypothetical scenarios or minor issues that appear scary but carry low probability or impact. The classification depends on whether the risk requires actual resource allocation to mitigate.

Can the pre-mortem skill be used outside of product launches?

Yes. While commonly applied to product launches, the pre-mortem framework works for any initiative with definable success criteria. The skill accepts any textual description via the /pre-mortem command, making it applicable to feature releases, organizational changes, or strategic pivots.

Where are the pre-mortem classifications defined in the source code?

The taxonomy is explicitly defined in pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md, which describes the purpose, step-by-step process, and risk categories. The command wrapper in pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md specifies the invocation syntax and output template format.

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "instagit": {
      "command": "npx",
      "args": ["-y", "instagit@latest"]
    }
  }
}