How to Run a Pre-Mortem Risk Analysis Using Tigers, Paper Tigers, or Elephants

Run a pre-mortem risk analysis by invoking the /pre-mortem command with your PRD or launch plan, then categorize surfaced risks as Tigers (real threats), Paper Tigers (overblown concerns), or Elephants (unspoken issues) to generate a markdown mitigation report.

The pm-skills repository implements a structured pre-mortem workflow as a reusable skill that helps product teams identify risks before launch. This framework classifies potential failures into three distinct categories—Tigers, Paper Tigers, and Elephants—enabling teams to prioritize mitigation efforts and avoid preventable disasters. The implementation lives under pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem and is accessed through the command-line interface defined in pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md.

Understanding the Tigers Framework

The pre-mortem methodology in pm-skills uses a three-tier classification system to filter noise from genuine threats. Each category dictates a different response strategy and urgency level.

What Are Tigers?

Tigers represent real, concrete risks that could block your launch or require immediate post-launch attention. According to pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md (lines 27-42), these are categorized further by urgency:

• Launch-Blocking: Issues that must be resolved before release
• Fast-Follow: Critical items that can ship immediately after launch
• Track: Risks to monitor but not actively mitigate pre-launch

Each Tiger receives a severity matrix and requires a specific owner and deadline.

What Are Paper Tigers?

Paper Tigers are over-blown concerns that consume mental bandwidth but are unlikely to materialize. The skill identifies these during the classification step (lines 27-42 in SKILL.md) and marks them for quick validation or dismissal rather than full mitigation planning.

What Are Elephants?

Elephants are unspoken or hidden worries that team members may be avoiding due to discomfort or politics. The framework explicitly surfaces these in a dedicated section of the output report to ensure psychological safety and comprehensive risk coverage.

How the Pre-Mortem Skill Works

The pre-mortem skill follows a deterministic seven-step execution flow defined in SKILL.md and invoked via pre-mortem.md. When you trigger the command, the system executes the following pipeline:

1. Gather the PRD: Parses your product requirements document to extract goals, assumptions, and timelines (lines 18-20 in SKILL.md)
2. Imagine Failure: Generates failure scenarios across technical, user, business, operational, and dependency dimensions (lines 27-33 in pre-mortem.md)
3. Categorize Risks: Classifies each risk as Tiger, Paper Tiger, or Elephant (lines 27-42 in SKILL.md)
4. Prioritize Tigers: Labels blocking Tigers with severity levels (lines 44-53 in SKILL.md)
5. Create Action Plans: Generates mitigations with owners and deadlines for every launch-blocking item (lines 55-60 in SKILL.md)
6. Format Output: Renders a markdown report using the template defined in lines 52-88 of pre-mortem.md
7. Suggest Follow-ups: Recommends updates to PRDs, test scenarios, or launch checklists (lines 92-97 in pre-mortem.md)

The final artifact is saved as PreMortem-[product-name]-[date].md (line 79 in SKILL.md) for version control and team distribution.

Running the Analysis

To execute a pre-mortem, ensure the pm-execution plugin is loaded in your pm-skills CLI environment. Then invoke the command using one of the following patterns:

# Basic invocation with inline description

/ pre-mortem "We are launching a self-serve billing portal next month"

# Invocation with an attached PRD file

/ pre-mortem --file path/to/PRD.md

The system processes your input through the skill pipeline and returns a structured markdown report. The command definition in pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md specifies that you can supply either free-form text or structured documents like launch plans and feature specifications.

Interpreting the Output

The generated markdown report follows a strict template to ensure consistency across teams. According to pre-mortem.md (lines 52-88), the output contains:

Risk Categories

• Tigers (Real Risks): Presented in a table with columns for Risk, Likelihood, Impact, Mitigation, Owner, and Deadline
• Paper Tigers (Overblown Concerns): Listed as bullet points with brief explanations for why they are low-risk
• Elephants in the Room: Unspoken issues requiring team discussion and alignment

Go/No-Go Checklist

The report concludes with a checklist derived from the Tiger classification:

• All launch-blocking Tigers mitigated
• Fast-follow plan documented
• Track items assigned to monitoring owners

This checklist serves as the final approval gate before launch.

Summary

• Install pm-skills and verify the pm-execution plugin contains the pre-mortem skill under pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md
• Invoke the command using /pre-mortem with your PRD or launch description to trigger the seven-step analysis pipeline
• Classify risks into Tigers (real/urgent), Paper Tigers (overblown), and Elephants (hidden) based on the framework in the skill definition
• Address launch-blocking Tigers by implementing the generated mitigation plans with assigned owners and deadlines
• Use the markdown report (PreMortem-[product-name]-[date].md) as a version-controlled artifact for stakeholder alignment and go/no-go decisions

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference between a Tiger and a Paper Tiger in the pm-skills framework?

A Tiger is a validated risk that could actually impact your launch, requiring specific mitigation owners and deadlines. A Paper Tiger is an over-blown concern that appears threatening but is unlikely to materialize; the framework flags these so teams don't waste resources on false alarms. The distinction is made during step 3 of the skill execution (lines 27-42 in SKILL.md).

Can I run a pre-mortem without a formal PRD?

Yes. While the skill is optimized for parsing structured documents (as noted in lines 18-20 of SKILL.md), you can invoke /pre-mortem with free-form text describing your feature or launch plan. The system will extract assumptions and timelines from your description to generate the failure scenarios.

How does the framework handle "Elephants in the room" that teams are avoiding?

The Elephants category specifically captures unspoken or politically sensitive risks that teams may be reluctant to voice. During the "Imagine Failure" step (lines 27-33 in pre-mortem.md), the skill explicitly prompts for hidden worries across organizational and interpersonal dimensions, then lists them in a dedicated section of the output report to ensure they receive attention without blame.

Where is the pre-mortem output saved and how should it be used?

The skill generates a markdown file named PreMortem-[product-name]-[date].md (line 79 in SKILL.md). This file should be committed to your repository alongside your PRD and launch plans. Teams use it as a living document for risk tracking, assigning mitigation tasks, and conducting final go/no-go reviews via the included checklist.

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}