How to Use the Pre-Mortem Skill for Risk Analysis in Product Management

The Pre-Mortem skill in the phuryn/pm-skills repository executes a structured "what-if-it-fails" framework that categorizes launch risks as Tigers, Paper Tigers, or Elephants, then generates prioritized mitigation plans with assigned owners and deadlines.

The Pre-Mortem skill is part of the pm-execution suite in the open-source pm-skills repository. It provides product teams with a systematic approach to pre-mortem skill for risk analysis, converting speculative anxiety about upcoming launches into actionable risk management strategies before code ships.

Understanding the Pre-Mortem Risk Taxonomy

The skill implements a three-class taxonomy defined in pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md to distinguish between genuine threats and organizational noise.

Tigers (Real Problems)

Tigers represent verified risks that could derail the launch. The framework subdivides these by urgency into launch-blocking, fast-follow, and track categories, ensuring critical issues receive immediate attention while lower-priority items are monitored.

Paper Tigers (Overblown Worries)

Paper Tigers are perceived risks that analysis reveals to be less severe than initially feared. Identifying these prevents teams from wasting engineering resources on edge cases with minimal impact.

Elephants (Unspoken Concerns)

Elephants capture the risks nobody wants to mention—the organizational taboos, political sensitivities, or cultural blind spots that typically surface only after failure occurs.

How the Pre-Mortem Workflow Executes

When you invoke the /pre-mortem command, the engine loads the skill definition and executes a five-step workflow:

1. Input acquisition – Accepts product-plan artifacts such as PRDs, launch briefs, or feature specifications via markdown blocks or file uploads.
2. Scenario simulation – Imagines the launch having failed 14 days after release, prompting enumeration of technical, user, business, operational, and dependency risks.
3. Risk categorisation – Applies the Tiger/Paper Tiger/Elephant taxonomy, then splits Tigers by urgency level.
4. Action-plan generation – For each launch-blocking Tiger, produces a mitigation strategy, assigned owner, and deadline.
5. Report rendering – Outputs a markdown document following the template in pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md.

Invoking the Pre-Mortem Command

You can trigger the analysis through the CLI or chat interface using several input methods.

Inline Invocation

Pass a brief description directly to the command:

/pre-mortem We're launching a self-serve billing portal next month

File Upload

Submit a structured PRD or specification:

/pre-mortem

```yaml
title: Billing Portal
summary: Self-serve UI for managing subscriptions
release_date: 2024-11-01
...

### Output Format

The skill generates a markdown table suitable for saving to files like [`PreMortem-Billing-Portal-2024-10-05.md`](https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/blob/main/PreMortem-Billing-Portal-2024-10-05.md):

```markdown

## Pre-Mortem: Billing Portal

| # | Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation | Owner | Deadline |

|---|------|------------|--------|------------|-------|----------|
| 1 | Payment gateway latency > 2s | High | High | Optimize API calls, add timeout fallback | Backend lead | 2024-10-20 |

Key Files and Architecture

The implementation follows a clean separation between conversational entry points and execution logic:

• pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md – Defines the command interface and user-facing workflow.
• pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md – Contains the detailed LLM instructions and risk taxonomy definitions.
• pm-execution/README.md – Provides context for all execution-related skills.
• README.md (repo root) – Offers installation instructions and repository overview.

Both command and skill files reside under the pm-execution category, keeping execution tools discoverable and organized according to the repository's structural conventions.

Summary

• The Pre-Mortem skill in phuryn/pm-skills runs a "what-if-it-fails" analysis before product launches.
• It classifies risks as Tigers (real), Paper Tigers (overblown), or Elephants (unspoken).
• The workflow executes five steps from input acquisition to rendered markdown reports.
• Launch-blocking Tigers receive specific mitigation plans with owners and deadlines.
• Command definitions live in pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md, while skill logic resides in pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Pre-Mortem skill and how does it work?

The Pre-Mortem skill is an execution tool in the pm-skills repository that simulates a failed product launch to identify risks proactively. It uses the LLM to project 14 days past release, then categorizes findings and generates mitigation plans according to the Tiger/Paper Tiger/Elephant taxonomy.

How does the Tiger/Paper Tiger/Elephant classification system work?

Tigers are verified risks requiring action, subdivided by urgency into launch-blocking, fast-follow, and track categories. Paper Tigers are exaggerated concerns that analysis reveals as manageable. Elephants are organizational risks stakeholders avoid mentioning until failure occurs.

Where are the pre-mortem skill files located in the repository?

The command definition is at pm-execution/commands/pre-mortem.md and the skill implementation is at pm-execution/skills/pre-mortem/SKILL.md. Both are part of the pm-execution category grouping execution-related tools.

Can I use the pre-mortem skill for projects other than product launches?

Yes. While optimized for product launches, the skill accepts any product-plan artifact including PRDs, feature specs, or operational briefs, making it adaptable to major releases, infrastructure migrations, or strategic initiatives.

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "instagit": {
      "command": "npx",
      "args": ["-y", "instagit@latest"]
    }
  }
}